In a move signaling potentially significant shifts in global alliances, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently concluded a historic visit to South Africa. The visit, which concluded April 23, underscores Ukraine’s efforts to broaden its international support base, particularly amidst evolving relations with the United States under President Donald Trump.

Seeking Support in Africa

zelensky’s visit marks a diplomatic outreach to counter Russia’s increasing influence in Africa. Steven Gruzd, of the South African Institute of International Relations think-tank, noted, “I’m sure that Russia will be annoyed by the visit, but I don’t think it can do much about it.” This visit is Zelensky’s first to Africa since becoming president in 2019, excluding a brief stopover in Cape Verde in 2023.

Ukraine’s strategic pivot towards Africa stems from the continent’s nuanced stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Despite pressure from Western nations, many African states, including South Africa, have refrained from outright condemnation of Russia’s actions. Gruzd explained that Ukraine, recognizing the diplomatic importance of African states, has “doubled its embassies from 10 to 20,” but acknowledges that “it’s in a very crowded space – russia, China, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates are all trying to increase their influence in Africa.”

Strained U.S.-Ukraine Relations

the visit gains additional importance considering the current state of U.S.-Ukraine relations. Since President Trump’s return to office in January, the relationship between Washington and Kyiv has become increasingly strained. Trump has, in the past, briefly paused military aid, described Zelensky as a “dictator,” and accused Ukraine of being responsible for the war. These actions have raised concerns about the reliability of U.S. support for Ukraine.

According to the Council on Foreign Relations, U.S. military aid to Ukraine has been a critical lifeline in its defense against Russian aggression. A shift in this support coudl substantially impact the balance of power in the region.

Prof.Siphamandla Zondi, a political analyst at the university of Johannesburg, emphasizes the importance of international legitimacy for Ukraine: “Ukraine needs every bit of legitimacy it can get internationally – not just in Europe. Wars aren’t only won in the battlefield, but also in courts of public opinion around the world.”

South Africa’s Balancing Act

For South Africa’s President Cyril ramaphosa, hosting Zelensky is also a high-stakes endeavor, particularly given the country’s complex relationship with the U.S.. “The US has turned diplomacy on its head,” noted Mr. Gudz,adding: “Everyone is looking for new friends.”

Ramaphosa sees Zelensky’s visit as an possibility to bolster his credentials as a peacemaker, stating that their talks will focus on finding “a path to peace.” Ramaphosa also spoke with Putin ahead of Zelensky’s visit.”We both affirmed the strong bilateral relations between our respective countries,” Ramaphosa said in a post on X, adding, “We further committed to working together towards a peaceful resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.”

Ramaphosa’s attempts to mediate the conflict date back to 2023, when he led a delegation of african leaders to both Kyiv and Moscow. This initiative followed criticism from the Biden management regarding South Africa’s neutrality, particularly after the country participated in naval exercises with Russia and China.

Tensions further escalated when the U.S. ambassador to Pretoria accused south Africa of supplying arms and ammunition to Russia. While a subsequent inquiry found no evidence to support the claim, relations between South Africa and the Biden administration remained strained.

Trump’s stance differs,as he maintains a positive relationship with Putin and has urged Zelensky to negotiate with russia. Though, Trump’s relationship with South Africa has deteriorated due to its genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and allegations of “unjust and immoral practices” against the white-minority Afrikaner community, which Ramaphosa’s government denies.

Prof. Zondi believes South Africa must carefully manage its engagement with Zelensky to avoid jeopardizing efforts to repair relations with the Trump administration. “South Africa will want to explain that it is adding to the efforts to build peace, and its role is not in competition with that of [the] US,” he said.

Economic Imperatives

Beyond peace initiatives, Ramaphosa is expected to prioritize strengthening trade ties with ukraine, given South Africa’s economic challenges, including slow growth and high unemployment. “Any volume of trade, no matter how small, is critical for South Africa,” Prof. Zondi stated, emphasizing that strong relations could also benefit Ukraine by expanding its influence in Africa.

“South Africa could be Ukraine’s gateway to Africa because of its ports and financial systems,” Prof. Zondi suggested. This could potentially reshape Ukraine-Africa relations, though not necessarily at Russia’s expense. “Both Russia and Ukraine are the biggest exporters of cereals to africa. Africa needs both. It cannot be expected to choose sides,” the analyst concluded.

Countering the Argument: Can South Africa Truly Mediate?

A common counterargument is whether South Africa, given its own internal challenges and complex foreign relations, can effectively mediate the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While South Africa’s economic influence may be limited compared to global powers, its ancient role in conflict resolution on the African continent provides it with unique insights and diplomatic experience. Furthermore, its non-aligned stance could allow it to act as a neutral broker, fostering dialog between conflicting parties. Though,the success of this mediation hinges on the willingness of all parties,including the US,to engage constructively and prioritize a peaceful resolution.