Europe’s Security Dilemma: Capitulate or Commit
With a new US administration poised to take the helm, transatlantic security is facing increasing scrutiny. The U.S. security umbrella, which has largely provided stability in free Europe since World War II, is beginning to fray.
This uncertainty has ignited debates within Europe about its own defense capabilities. Despite some signs of a shift in European strategic thinking, an immediate overhaul can’t bridge the gap in military prowess between itself and the United States. Building a European military force with the size, sophistication, and force projection capabilities to effectively deter a powerful adversary like Russia would require a generational commitment.
But there is another option gaining traction: at least indirectly leveraging Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
A Ready-Made Arsenal
Ukraine, after weathering the storm of an unprovoked Russian invasion, has emerged as a potential solution to Europe’s strategic dilemma. While exhausted, scarred, and in dire need of support, Kyiv has demonstrated remarkable resilience and military prowess.
Following the invasion, Ukraine rapidly transitioned from being a regional power into a
capable land power in Europe. Its large, well-equipped, battle-hardened, and seasoned force has imprinted itself upon the battlefield, acquiring extensive firsthand experience in large-scale combined arms warfare.
Ukraine’s Defense Forces have not only mastered the use of diverse and frequently secondhand Western weapon systems, proficiently integrating them into formidable operational elements alongside exceptional battlefield innovation. Add to this a robust and battle-tested arsenal of advanced, domestically manufactured drones and an array of
long-range precision strike platforms.
Ukraine’s capabilities have proven effective, starkly contrasting the military shortcomings exposed during Russia’s invasion. While Moscow has made intermittent territorial gains at brutal cost, with casualty figures exceeding 600,000 and potentially reaching as high as 700,00 càrding to Ukrainian estimates, these gains are far from the decisive victory Russia anticipated.
The Urgency of a Pan-European Defense
Europe’s vulnerability is most acute when the United States retreats from its traditional role as security guarantor. The threat to NATO’s collective defense Article 5 is not some distant possibility;
analysts warn that Moscow may see opportunity in potential American disengagement. Without reliable American military backing, Europe would struggle to project sufficient deterrent force.
History demonstrably proves the wisdom, if not always the effectiveness, of deterrence. Western patience fueled by a desire to avoid escalation has
often emboldened Russia, as the Kremlin continued its expansionist adventures in Georgia and Ukraine.
The prospect of a weakened NATO deterrent risks redrawing the European security architecture into a more chaotic and potentially more violent multipolar system reminiscent of a pre-1945 world characterized by industrialized mass conflict, the fossilized scars of which should serve as a potent reminder of the
consequences.
While no one disputes the desirability of continued U.S. leadership in European security but with rising doubts in testament to the dependability of that commitment.
Embracing a Ukrainian Solution
Enter Ukraine. Battled-tested and demonstrated its source -off: U.S.
experienced in inflicting damage through a combination of battlefield acumen wargaming, and experience acquiring new technologies, Ukrainian soldiers
demonstrate the possibility of effective resistance against a larger, more traditional military power.
While replacement for U.S. troops, Ukraine offers something
perhaps even more valuable: liv
proof of concept.
