South Sudan opposition Leader’s Arrest Sparks Concerns

The recent arrest of Gen Gabriel Duop Lam, a high-ranking general from South Sudan’s main opposition party, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO), has ignited fears of a potential setback to the fragile peace process. The arrest, along with other senior officials, is being viewed as a “grave violation” of the 2018 peace agreement, according to an opposition spokesperson.

Key Developments

• Arrests: Gen Gabriel Duop Lam and other senior SPLM-IO officials have been arrested.
• Concerns: The opposition views the arrests as a violation of the peace agreement.
• Reactions: The government maintains the arrests were lawful.

Opposition’s Response

Puok Both Baluang, spokesperson for Vice-President Riek Machar, stated, “We are doing our best to avoid any escalation to the situation, however we need our partners in peace to demonstrate the political will to assure that this country will not go back to war again.” The SPLM-IO has expressed deep concern over the whereabouts and condition of the detained officials.

Government’s Stance

President Salva Kiir’s government insists that the situation will not escalate back to war. Government spokesperson Michael Makuei told reporters that the opposition figures were arrested because they were “in conflict with the law.”

Background to the Conflict

South Sudan gained independence from Sudan in 2011, but descended into civil war in 2013 after President Kiir accused Vice-President Machar of attempting a coup. The conflict resulted in an estimated 400,000 deaths and displaced 2.5 million people.A peace deal was signed in 2018, but its implementation has been challenging.

Key Points of the Peace Agreement

• signed in 2018 after five years of civil war.
• Aimed to integrate opposition forces into the national army.
• Has faced numerous challenges and setbacks.

Escalating Tensions

The arrests come after reports of clashes between government troops and the White Army militia in Upper Nile state. The White Army, which fought alongside Machar during the civil war, has been accused of seizing a strategic town near the Ethiopian border.

Machar’s spokesperson argued that the fighting “would have been avoided” if the national army leadership had adhered to the peace agreement.

International Concerns

The United Nations and the African Union have cautioned that the recent violence could spread and destabilize the region.ter Manyang, head of the Center for Peace and Advocacy, warned that “The country is likely to slide to war unless the situation is managed by the top leadership of the country.”

Looking Ahead

South Sudan is scheduled to hold elections in 2026, after multiple delays. The current political tensions and security concerns raise questions about the feasibility of holding credible and peaceful elections.

The arrest of opposition figures and ongoing clashes underscore the fragility of the peace process in South Sudan.Continued dialogue, commitment to the peace agreement, and international support are crucial to prevent a return to widespread conflict. Stay informed on developments in South Sudan and advocate for peaceful resolutions by supporting organizations working towards peace and stability in the region.

How can the international community prevent South Sudan’s fragile peace process from further deteriorating in the wake of General Duop Lam’s arrest and escalating tensions between the government and opposition?

concerns Rise in South sudan: Interview with Peace Process analyst Dr. Sarath Ayuel

The recent arrest of General Gabriel Duop Lam, a prominent figure in South Sudan’s opposition, has cast a shadow over the country’s already fragile peace process. Archyde News spoke with dr. Sarath Ayuel, a lead analyst at the Horn of Africa Peace Institute, to gain insights into the implications of this event and the challenges facing South sudan.

The Arrests and the Peace Agreement

Archyde News: Dr. Ayuel, thank you for joining us. The arrest of Gen Gabriel Duop Lam is clearly a concerning growth. How notable is this in the context of the 2018 peace agreement?

Dr. Sarath Ayuel: Thank you for having me.The arrest is deeply significant and concerning. The 2018 peace agreement, while flawed and facing constant hurdles, represents the best framework we have to prevent a return to widespread conflict. The arrest of a high-ranking figure within the SPLM-IO, like Gen Duop Lam, undermines the trust and confidence needed for the agreement to succeed. It raises serious questions about the government’s commitment to its implementation.

Government’s Rationale vs. Opposition Concerns

Archyde News: The government claims these arrests were lawful, while the opposition views them as a violation of the peace agreement. How do you reconcile these conflicting narratives?

Dr. Sarath Ayuel: the government’s justification of “lawful arrest” is often used in situations like this,but it doesn’t address the underlying political context. Even if there’s a legal basis, the timing and potential impact on the peace process must be considered. The SPLM-IO understandably fears that this could be a tactic to weaken the opposition and consolidate power, especially with elections on the horizon. Clarity and due process are crucial to alleviate these concerns.

The Impact on the 2026 Elections

Archyde News: South Sudan isScheduled to hold elections in 2026. How are these recent developments impacting the prospects for free and fair elections?

Dr. Sarath Ayuel: These rising political tensions are a massive blow to building a conducive habitat for credible elections. For elections to be meaningful the authorities will have to ensure freedom of association and assembly. If prominent figures in the opposition are being arrested, then that will cause alarm to most people and scare them to join political competition, especially people in rural areas where accessibility to justice is very difficult.

Escalating clashes and Regional Stability

Archyde News: We’ve also seen reports of clashes in Upper Nile State. How localized are these conflicts, and what’s the risk of them escalating and destabilizing the region, as the UN and AU have warned?

Dr. Sarath Ayuel: Unfortunately, these clashes are not isolated incidents. they reflect a broader pattern of localized conflicts fueled by competition for resources, ethnic grievances, and a lack of effective governance. The risk of escalation is very real. Upper Nile State is strategically crucial, and any sustained conflict there could easily spill over into neighboring regions and destabilize the entire area, particularly given the ongoing political tensions at the national level and the presence of armed groups. Peace is not a given especially in a period closer to elections, therefore all efforts towards maintaining peace will have to be intensified!

A Thoght-Provoking Question and What the Future Holds

Archyde News: Dr. Ayuel, the situation in South sudan seems precarious. What one thing needs to happen instantly to prevent a further deterioration of the peace process, and what question should our readers be asking themselves about the international community’s role?

Dr. Sarath Ayuel: Firstly, immediate and unconditional release of the arrested senior opposition officials with a guarantee of safety can play a very important role as an attempt to prevent further deterioration of the peace process. Regarding the international community, while continuing financial and logistical support, should also engage in genuine dialog with local actors to understand and address the underlying causes of conflict, rather than simply imposing external solutions.

For our readers, I would ask: How can the international community move beyond simply providing aid and toward fostering genuine local ownership of the peace process, ensuring a enduring and equitable future for the people of South Sudan?

Archyde News: Dr. Ayuel, thank you for sharing your valuable insights with us.

Dr. Sarath Ayuel: my pleasure. Thank you for having me.