What steps can be taken too ensure lasting peace in South Sudan?

south Sudan Peace Deal: An Expert’s Perspective on Recent Arrests

Tensions are rising in South Sudan, and many are concerned about the stability of the 2018 peace agreement. To understand the implications of the recent arrests of key officials, we spoke with Dr. Eleanor Abimbola,a Senior Research fellow at the Institute for African Peace and Security Studies.

Dr. Abimbola, thank you for joining us. Can you briefly explain the importance of the 2018 South Sudan peace agreement and its role in the country’s stability?

Thank you for having me. The 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) was a crucial attempt to end the devastating civil war. It established a framework for power-sharing between President Kiir and Vice President Machar, aiming to create a unified government and prevent further bloodshed. Its success hinges on trust and cooperation, which unfortunately remain fragile.

The recent arrests of Oil Minister But Kang chol and Deputy Chief of Staff Gabriel Dub Lam have sparked considerable concern. What is your interpretation of these arrests and what impact do you think they will have on the South Sudan peace process?

These arrests are deeply concerning. The lack of clear justification from the government fuels suspicion that they are politically motivated, perhaps aimed at undermining Vice President Machar’s influence. This kind of action directly threatens the spirit of the peace agreement, which depends on mutual respect and inclusion. If key figures aligned with Machar are being targeted, it erodes the very foundation of the coalition government and could provoke a dangerous backlash.

Minister Pal Mai Deng warned, the detention of the deputy chief of staff “endangers the peace agreement fully.” Do you think this is an overreaction, or is it a legitimate concern?

I believe it’s a legitimate concern. Minister deng’s statement reflects a growing anxiety among Machar’s supporters and observers that the arrests are part of a broader pattern of undermining the power-sharing arrangement. These actions can be construed as a violation of the agreement’s underlying principles.The impact is not just the arrest itself, it’s the signal it sends about the commitment to that underlying cooperative principle within the agreement.

There are reports of increased security presence around Riek Machar’s residence. How important is that advancement in the current context, given the previous conflicts between Kiir and Machar?

The increased security presence is a highly destabilizing factor. It evokes memories of the tensions that triggered the civil war in 2013. Such a visible show of force near Machar’s residence can easily be interpreted as intimidation, further escalating the already tense situation and potentially leading to unforeseen consequences. this type of action could be seen as a deliberate attempt to destabilize the region, causing further political uncertainty.

The Peace and Manner Center’s Executive Director has warned of a potential “overall war.” Do you believe a return to large-scale conflict is a realistic possibility?

While I hope it doesn’t come to that, the risk of a return to wider conflict is definitely present. The fragility of the peace agreement,combined with the heightened political tensions and the lack of trust,creates a volatile environment. If the underlying issues are not addressed through genuine dialog and de-escalation, the situation could easily spiral out of control. It highlights the urgent need for the immediate release of political detainees to foster a more collaborative environment.

What role should the international community play in de-escalating the current crisis in South Sudan and supporting its long-term stability?

The international community plays a critical role. Firstly, it must strongly condemn the arrests and call for the unconditional release of all political detainees.Secondly, it should actively facilitate an open and inclusive dialogue between President Kiir and Vice President Machar to address their grievances and rebuild trust. Furthermore, continued support for strengthening governance institutions, security sector reform, and humanitarian assistance is essential for long-term stability. The U.S. Department of State and the UN Security Council need to leverage their influence to promote accountability and prevent further violations of the peace agreement.

dr. Abimbola, what is the one thing you would say is absolutely crucial to do right now to prevent renewed conflict in South Sudan?

Beyond the immediate calls for release and dialogue, it’s crucial to address the underlying issues of mistrust and competition for power. Both President Kiir and Vice President Machar need to demonstrate a genuine commitment to power-sharing and inclusive governance. This requires a fundamental shift in mindset, from a win-lose approach to one of collaboration and compromise. I urge all the parties involved to act with a renewed sense of urgency and determination to preserve the hard-won gains of the peace agreement. the immediate start of unconditional open dialogue that ensures all voices are heard is critical.

Now, we’d like to turn the question to you, our readers: what steps do you think are most critical for ensuring lasting peace in South Sudan? Share your thoughts in the comments below.