The Climate Connection: Drought’s Impact on Meat Supply

The ripple effects of climate change are increasingly evident in our daily lives, extending even to what’s on our dinner plates. As of today, March 20, 2025, the consequences of drought, particularly the severe drought of 2023, are still being felt in the meat industry, not just in Argentina, but globally.

Consider the situation in the U.S. Midwest, where prolonged drought conditions have impacted cattle ranchers. Reduced grazing lands and higher feed costs are forcing some ranchers to reduce their herds, mirroring the challenges faced in Argentina. This means less beef available, driving up prices at your local grocery store.

The drought of 2023, described as the largest recorded in history, had severe consequences.As one Argentinian expert notes, “There were 820,000 calves less due to drought, in addition to a liquidation of empty females, which became between 350,000 and 500,000.” this culling of herds,while a short-term survival tactic for ranchers,has long-term implications for meat supply and prices.

Shifting Protein Landscape: Chicken and Pork Take Center Stage

As beef prices rise, consumers are increasingly turning to more affordable protein alternatives like chicken and pork. This shift is not just a matter of cost, but also reflects changing consumer preferences and a growing awareness of the environmental impact of different protein sources.

While beef production has faced challenges, the poultry and pork industries have seen increased efficiency and productivity. “The consumption of chicken and pork has increased in recent years, which has allowed Argentines to vary their consumption habits,” notes an industry expert, and this trend is mirrored in the U.S., where per capita consumption of chicken has steadily risen over the past decade.

American consumers are increasingly aware of the relationship between their food choices and the environment. Plant-based meat alternatives are also gaining traction as consumers seek more sustainable sources of protein.

The Price Equation: Beef vs. Chicken and Pork

The economic advantage of chicken and pork is becoming increasingly clear. As noted by an Argentinian industry leader, “a kilo of vaccine meat today can be exchanged for three kilos of chicken or two pork.” This price disparity is a significant driver of consumer choice.

Consider the average American family trying to stretch their food budget. A roast beef dinner might now be reserved for special occasions, while chicken or pork dishes become more frequent staples.This shift has significant implications for the meat industry, as producers adapt to changing demand patterns.

In Febuary, vaccine meat experienced an average increase of 12%, while chicken rose only 0.4%and the pig 4%. This is due to the greater productivity of these other products, since pork and chicken production has improved thanks to technological advances that have reduced costs.

Technological advancements have played a crucial role in boosting the efficiency of chicken and pork production. Such as, precision feeding systems and improved breeding techniques have significantly reduced production costs. “A pig that previously needed 4.5 kilos of food to earn a kilo of weight, now only needs 3.5 kilos, which reduces production costs,” an expert explained.

Looking Ahead: Climate, Land, and Livestock Recovery

The future of meat production hinges on several factors, including climate stability and land use. Continued drought conditions will undoubtedly exacerbate the challenges faced by the beef industry,while the conversion of livestock land to agricultural land further reduces the capacity for cattle production. “If the weather remains stable, the producer could begin to increase the stock of females, which could generate more meat in the future,” an expert explained. However, he stressed that the recovery process of a livestock stock has been for many years. “To increase the stock,at least five years are required.”

Addressing the challenges requires a multi-faceted approach, including sustainable land management practices, drought-resistant crops, and investments in water conservation technologies. Furthermore, the American government could introduce policies that support farmers, such as subsidies for drought-resistant farming techniques and land restoration initiatives.

The reconversion of livestock land to agricultural land, driven by the demand for crops, presents another hurdle. “There are almost 2.5 million hectares less available to livestock,” a specialist noted,highlighting the competition for land resources.

After the livestock crisis of 2007-2008, Argentina lost more than 12 million head of cattle, and to date has only recovered around 3.8 million. “It is very little what we have recovered, and we continue to slaughter more light animals, which affects both the quality and the amount of the available meat,” he finalized.

Adapting to Change: Strategies for Consumers and Producers

The changing landscape of protein production requires adaptation from both consumers and producers. Consumers can explore a wider variety of protein sources, including plant-based options, while producers can invest in sustainable farming practices and explore alternative feed sources.

Here are some practical tips for adapting to the changing protein landscape:

• Consumers:
• Explore plant-based protein sources like beans, lentils, and tofu.
• Try new recipes that feature chicken and pork.
• Consider buying meat in bulk when prices are lower and freezing it for later use.
• Producers:
• Invest in drought-resistant farming practices.
• Explore alternative feed sources for livestock.
• Diversify your operations to include multiple protein sources.