Myanmar is reeling from a 7.7 magnitude earthquake that struck two weeks ago, exacerbating the already dire situation caused by a brutal civil war. The quake, one of the strongest to hit the region in a century, has left thousands dead, injured, or missing, and threatens to further destabilize the nation.

As of Sunday, the official death toll had risen to 3,471. Predictive modeling from the U.S.Geological Survey estimates that the final death toll could exceed 10,000. Economic losses are projected to surpass Myanmar’s annual GDP, which the World Bank reported at $66.8 billion in 2023. The scale of the disaster is immense, dwarfing even some of the most devastating natural disasters in recent U.S. history, such as Hurricane Katrina, which caused an estimated $179 billion (inflation adjusted to 2024) in damage.

In the immediate aftermath of the quake,the ruling junta declared a state of emergency in the hardest-hit areas and appealed for international assistance. This marks a meaningful departure from their response to Cyclone Nargis in 2008, when the junta initially refused international aid, leading to over 84,000 deaths.

This apparent shift in approach has sparked cautious optimism among some observers, drawing parallels to past disasters in the region that led to peace talks. Such as, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami prompted a truce between the Indonesian government and local rebels to facilitate relief efforts.

Though, analysts remain skeptical about the prospects for a lasting peace deal in Myanmar. Angshuman Choudhury, a singapore