As the July 31 trade deadline looms, the Miami marlins face a pivotal decision regarding the future of their star pitcher, Sandy Alcantara. Despite a challenging start to the 2025 season, including a recent return from Tommy John surgery, Alcantara remains a valuable asset. The Marlins, currently holding the third-worst postseason odds in Major League Baseball, coudl opt to rebuild, potentially making the 2022 National League cy Young Award winner available to the highest bidder.

Alcantara’s Contract and Performance

alcantara’s current contract includes a $17.3 million salary for this season and the next, with a $21 million club option for 2027. His 2025 statistics, albeit limited, show 17.1 innings pitched with a 7.27 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP, accompanied by 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings. These numbers reflect the challenge of returning from a meaningful injury like Tommy John surgery, which often requires a period of adjustment.

According to recent reports, the Marlins are planning to hold onto Sandy Alcantara “until the final days before the July 31 trade deadline,” suggesting it’s “unrealistic” he’ll stay in Miami beyond that time. though, this strategy hinges on his performance. Alcantara showed promise in his first start post-surgery against Pittsburgh. Though, following a rain postponement that altered his schedule, his subsequent two appearances have been rocky, marked by 7.2 innings pitched, nine hits, 10 earned runs, six walks, and only two strikeouts.

Potential Trade Scenarios

Despite their struggles, the marlins roster shows a commitment to the future. With the exception of third-string catcher Rob Brantly, the entire team is under 30 years old, and Cal Quantrill is the only player not signed through at least 2027. This situation presents a unique scenario where the Marlins “might not make a single trade,” or “they might make a huge one,” depending on their long-term strategy and Alcantara’s performance trajectory.

One potential landing spot frequently mentioned is the Baltimore orioles. Several of their pitchers are set to become free agents this winter, creating a need for a long-term solution.However, if the Orioles don’t become buyers, other teams could emerge as contenders for Alcantara’s services.The San Diego padres, facing potential free agency for Dylan Cease and a mutual option for Michael King in 2026, could also be a strong fit.

Ideal Landing Spots: Baltimore Orioles and San Diego Padres

The Baltimore Orioles and San Diego Padres emerge as prime candidates when considering potential destinations for Alcantara. The Orioles, seeking stability and long-term solutions for their pitching rotation, view Alcantara as a strategic acquisition to bolster their competitiveness.

Conversely, the Padres, grappling with uncertainties in their pitching roster, see Alcantara as a valuable addition to fortify their pitching staff and sustain their pursuit of contention. While the Orioles and Padres present distinct organizational contexts,both teams recognize the value of acquiring a talent like Alcantara to address their pitching needs and enhance their prospects for success.

Counterarguments and Considerations

While trading Alcantara could bring a significant return in prospects,it also means parting ways with a proven,high-caliber pitcher. Some argue that the Marlins should focus on building around Alcantara, hoping he returns to his Cy Young form and becomes a cornerstone of their future success. This approach would require patience and investment in other areas of the team to create a more competitive environment.

The decision is further complicated by the inherent risks associated with pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery. While many pitchers successfully return to form, the recovery process can be unpredictable, and there’s no guarantee that Alcantara will regain his previous level of performance. This uncertainty could impact his trade value and the Marlins’ willingness to part with him.

MLB starting Pitcher Salaries

Here are the average salaries of starting pitchers in MLB: