WASHINGTON D.C. – Italian Prime Minister giorgia Meloni’s visit to the United States to meet with Donald Trump is more than just a amiable chat; it’s a high-stakes diplomatic mission fraught with economic and political implications for both Italy and the European Union. As the first European leader to visit trump since he proposed,and then paused,a hefty 20% tariff on EU goods earlier this month,Meloni is walking a tightrope,balancing her nation’s economic interests with her commitment to European unity.

Meloni’s primary objective is to advocate for a “zero-for-zero” tariff agreement for the entire EU. This deal would eliminate all tariffs between the U.S. and the EU, fostering freer trade and hopefully preventing a transatlantic trade war. Such an outcome is especially crucial for Italy.

Italy stands to lose significantly from increased tariffs. Approximately 10% of Italy’s exports,valued at around €67 billion (roughly $76 billion USD),are shipped to the United states,making the U.S. Italy’s third-largest non-EU trading partner. Trump’s proposed tariffs already caused Rome to cut its growth forecast in half, underscoring the economic anxiety driving Meloni’s mission.

Before departing for the U.S., meloni acknowledged the weight of the situation, stating, “We certainly know this is a difficult time. We will do our best – I am aware of what I represent and of what I am defending.”

A Unique Rapport

In these tense times, Meloni might potentially be the European leader best positioned to negotiate with Trump.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recognizes this and has consulted with Meloni beforehand. Observers have noted the two leaders have engaged in frequent discussions in anticipation of the meeting.

The bond between Trump and Meloni is well-documented. They have publicly expressed admiration for each other, with Trump describing her as a “fantastic woman” who has “really taken Europe by storm.”

Meloni, who leads a right-wing coalition government since 2022, shares ideological common ground with trump more so than some of her European counterparts. This is a key element of her potential effectiveness.

In a video message to a U.S.conservative conference in February, she echoed familiar Trumpian themes, decrying mass migration, “globalist elites,” and “woke ideology.” She was also the only European leader to attend Trump’s inauguration in January. Her public criticism of the Trump administration has been muted, at best.

Her sharpest rebuke came earlier this month when she labeled Trump’s proposed 20% tariffs on the EU as “absolutely wrong,” arguing that they would ultimately harm both the EU and the U.S.

Navigating the Divide

Riccardo Alcaro of the Italian Institute for International Affairs in rome suggests Meloni will try to avoid direct conflict with the U.S., “Meloni has always said that Europe shouldn’t take any decisions that put it on a collision course with the US, and that Europe should adapt rather than resist,” says alcaro. “If the Trump administration is immovable on tariffs, she’ll agree to counter-tariffs. But her first move is always to say no. As ultimately she thinks the importance of the West in the world is thanks to the US, and that the West revolves around the US.”

Meloni’s worldview aligns more closely with Trump’s allies than many of her European colleagues. This alignment presents both an prospect and a risk. She can potentially leverage this shared perspective to build rapport and find common ground with the Trump administration.However, it also risks alienating her from other European leaders who may not share her views on the U.S.

Alcaro also notes, “She knows that Italy is strategically, politically and economically subordinate to the EU – but she also has a genuine proximity to MAGA Republicans.”

Adding to the diplomatic activity, U.S. Vice-President JD Vance is scheduled to visit Rome for Easter, where he will meet with Meloni and Vatican officials. This further underscores the importance of U.S.-Italy relations.

european Concerns and Coordination

Meloni’s perceived affinity for the Trump administration has raised eyebrows among some European leaders. they fear she might be tempted to pursue a solo deal, securing more favorable terms for Italy at the expense of the broader EU. France’s Industry Minister Marc Ferracci voiced these concerns, speaking out against “bilateral talks” and warning that Trump’s strategy was to “divide Europeans.” These comments reportedly irked Rome.

The European commission, however, has publicly expressed confidence in Meloni. A spokeswoman stated that “any outreach to the US [was] very welcome.” The commission also emphasized that Meloni’s trip was being “closely coordinated” with EU institutions, reaffirming that trade policy is the EU’s obligation. As the spokeswoman said, “any outreach to the US [was] very welcome.”

The EU negotiates trade agreements on behalf of all member states, meaning no single country can independently negotiate lower tariffs for its own benefit. This is a fundamental principle of the EU’s trade policy.

Italian foreign Minister Antonio Tajani echoed this sentiment,stating that Meloni “isn’t going to negotiate for Italy against Europe but is going to champion a European stance.”

The stakes and the strategy

Ultimately, Meloni’s mission may be to convince Trump that the EU is eager to reach a zero-tariff agreement and committed to buying American goods, particularly in the defense and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sectors. These are key areas where the EU can increase its economic cooperation with the U.S.

Additionally, Meloni might subtly convey that Europe is in no hurry to deepen trade ties with China. This message, according to Alcaro, could serve as “an incentive for the US administration,” though he admits, “I don’t know how public this will be but I think there will be some anti-China discourse.”

Back in Italy, Meloni’s allies were already praising her efforts before her departure. Augusta Montarulli, an MP from Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, declared, “This meeting shows Giorgia Meloni’s courage and stature.” However, Senator Giovanbattista Fazzolari offered a more cautious assessment, warning that the trip would be “full of potential pitfalls.”

Simultaneously occurring, center-left opposition parties criticized Meloni’s close ties to the Trump administration. Peppe Provenzano of the Democratic Party (PD) quipped, “I have a feeling that upon her return meloni will be flying the Trump flag rather than Italy’s or Europe’s. I hope to be proven wrong.”

Meloni, addressing a room full of entrepreneurs and buisness leaders on tuesday, acknowledged the pressure she faces. “As you can imagine,” she joked, “I’m feeling no pressure at all.” The quip highlights the immense expectations and challenges that she faces as she embarks on this critical diplomatic mission.

Potential Outcomes: A Table of Possibilities

FAQ: Meloni’s US visit

• Why is Meloni meeting with Trump? To discuss trade relations and avoid potential tariffs on EU goods.
• What is “zero-for-zero” tariff agreement? An agreement to eliminate all tariffs between the U.S. and the EU.
• What’s at stake for Italy? A significant portion of its exports to the U.S.are at risk.
• Is Meloni representing the EU? Yes, while also advocating for Italy’s interests.
• What could this mean for US consumers? Depending on outcomes, prices on European goods could fluctuate.