SRINAGAR, India – Tensions between India and Pakistan escalated Thursday as New delhi mounted a diplomatic offensive against Islamabad, blaming it for a deadly attack in Kashmir that killed 26 people and shattered India’s claims of calm in a disputed region where a bloody rebellion against Indian rule has been ongoing for decades.

The attack, which targeted tourists, has renewed international concerns about stability in the region and the potential for further conflict between the two nuclear-armed nations. The U.S. State Department has urged both sides to exercise restraint and engage in direct dialog to de-escalate the situation.

India and Pakistan each administer a part of Kashmir, but both claim the territory in its entirety. New Delhi describes all militancy in Kashmir as Pakistan-backed terrorism. Pakistan denies this, and many Muslim Kashmiris consider the militants to be part of a home-grown freedom struggle.

Domestic Pressures Mount on Both Sides

The killings also put pressure on Prime Minister Narendra modi’s Hindu nationalist government to respond aggressively. His government announced a series of diplomatic actions against Islamabad while hinting at plans for more punishment.

Pakistan has responded angrily that it has nothing to do with the attack and said it would formulate a response to India’s actions on Thursday in the National Security Committee meeting, the country’s highest decision-making forum of senior civil and military officials.

Dozens of demonstrators in Islamabad and other cities in Pakistan rallied against India’s suspension of a water sharing treaty, demanding their government retaliate.

“India has taken irresponsible steps and leveled allegations,” Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told local Dunya News TV channel.

Dar added that “any kinetic step by India will see a tit-to-tat kinetic response” from Pakistan, rekindling memories of February 2019 when a car suicide bombing in Kashmir brought the two countries to the verge of war.

Modi overturned the status quo in Kashmir in August 2019, when his government revoked the region’s semi-autonomous status and brought it under direct federal control.This move was widely criticized by human rights organizations, including Amnesty International, which cited concerns over restrictions on freedom of expression and assembly.

Fears of Escalation Rise

The latest incident could once again raise the specter of conflict between two nuclear-armed neighbors that have long accused each other of backing forces to destabilize the other.

At a public rally Thursday, Modi said “India will identify, track and punish every terrorist, their handlers and their backers.”

“We will pursue them to the ends of the earth,” said Modi, who was later in the day scheduled to head an all-party meeting with opposition parties to brief them on the government’s response to the attack.

India’s foreign secretary, Vikram Misri, announced Wednesday night that a number of Pakistani diplomats were asked to leave New Delhi and Indian diplomats were recalled from Pakistan. Diplomatic missions in both countries will reduce their staff from 55 to 30 as of May 1, and the only functional land border crossing between the countries would be closed.

India also suspended a landmark water-sharing treaty that has survived two wars between the countries, in 1965 and 1971, and a major border skirmish in 1999.

The Indus Water Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, allows for sharing the waters of a river system that is a lifeline for both countries, especially for Pakistan’s agriculture.

Some experts say india may move beyond diplomatic sanctions as the country’s media and leaders from Modi’s ruling party call for military action.

Earlier Wednesday, defense minister, Rajnath Singh, pledged to “not only trace those who perpetrated the attack but also trace those who conspired to commit this nefarious act on our soil” and hinted at the possibility of military strikes.

Ashok Malik, a former policy advisor in India’s foreign ministry, said New Delhi’s response reflected a high degree of anger within the administration and India’s move on the Indus Water treaty “will impose costs on Pakistan’s economy.”

“Islamabad will have to deal with the consequences,” Malik said,adding that Indian leaders view military options as viable.

“Its (India’s) military strategists believe there is a space for kinetic conventional action under the nuclear umbrella. The space isn’t infinite, but it isn’t insignificant either,” he said.

Praveen Donthi, senior analyst with the International Crisis Group, said framing the Kashmir conflict as a security crisis of Pakistan’s creation, “which can be resolved only through harsh talk and actions,” brings political dividends to Modi’s government but could also leave it with few options in times of crises.

“The immense public pressure on the Modi government to retaliate strongly and militarily is self-created.Soon, there will be no options left unless new Delhi starts looking to address the roots of political unrest in Kashmir,” Donthi said.

Dismay and Protest in Kashmir

The killings shocked residents of kashmir, where militants fighting against Indian rule have rarely targeted tourists and have mainly mounted their attacks against indian forces.

In a rare show of public outrage, Kashmiris — many of whom have roiled under an intense crackdown by Indian forces and New Delhi’s highhanded rule — took part in street protests and candle light marches in protest against the killings. Markets, private schools and businesses were also shut Wednesday amidst an uneasy calm as people worried that the attacks could drive away tourists and hurt the region’s economy.

funerals of several of those killed were also held across some Indian cities.

U.S. Involvement and Concerns

The United States has a long history of involvement in mediating conflicts between India and Pakistan. In recent years, the U.S. has sought to balance its relationships with both countries,recognizing India as a strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific region while also maintaining communication channels with Pakistan to address counterterrorism concerns.

However, the current escalation presents a challenge for U.S. foreign policy. The potential for military conflict between two nuclear-armed states raises serious concerns about regional and global security. The U.S. is highly likely to intensify its diplomatic efforts to encourage de-escalation and prevent further violence.

Some analysts argue that the U.S. should take a more assertive role in mediating the Kashmir dispute, while others believe that external interference could further complicate the situation. A recent report by the Council on Foreign relations recommended that the U.S. prioritize supporting confidence-building measures between India and Pakistan, such as promoting people-to-people exchanges and facilitating dialogue between civil society organizations.

Counterargument: Is Military Action justified?

While the attack in Kashmir was undoubtedly a tragedy,and the desire for retribution is understandable,military action could have catastrophic consequences. Given that both India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons,any escalation could quickly spiral out of control,potentially leading to a nuclear conflict. Diplomatic solutions, though perhaps slower and more challenging, offer a safer and more enduring path to resolving the underlying issues.

Instead of military strikes, focusing on strengthening diplomatic channels, addressing the root causes of unrest in Kashmir, and promoting regional cooperation could provide a more lasting solution. The United states and other international actors can play a crucial role in facilitating these efforts.

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