In April 2025, Samarkand, Uzbekistan, hosted the inaugural Central Asia-EU Summit, a landmark event designed to bolster the European Union’s influence in a region increasingly contested by global powers.For the United States, this summit highlights the intensifying competition for strategic resources adn influence in Eurasia, a theater crucial for balancing the power of China and Russia. the summit aimed to solidify the EU’s position through economic incentives and strategic partnerships, but questions remain about the effectiveness and long-term impact of these efforts.

The centerpiece of the summit was the EU’s commitment of a €12 billion ($13.6 billion) assistance package. This substantial investment targets the expansion of trade routes, growth of the mining sector, and enhancement of digital connectivity across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Though, details regarding the allocation of these funds and their connection to the €10 billion in development aid pledged at the 2024 Global Gateway Investors Forum remain unclear.

The EU’s strategy reflects its broader “Global Gateway” initiative. This is seen as Europe’s option to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The initiative aims to invest in infrastructure development around the world. The US is watching closely to see if the EU can effectively counter China’s growing influence.

Currently, the breakdown of the €12 billion pledge includes €3 billion for the transport sector, €6.4 billion for energy projects, and €100 million for satellite Internet development. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has also outlined plans for projects valued between €7 billion and €8 billion through 2027, but specific details are yet to be disclosed.

Central Asia’s strategic importance to the EU lies in its role as a key partner in the development of the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor, also known as the “Middle Corridor.” This route aims to create an alternative freight passage between Europe and Central Asia, circumventing Russia. The goal is to reduce transportation times to 15 days. This is a notable improvement from the current timeframe. The EU is already the largest foreign investor in Central Asia, accounting for 40% of all foreign direct investment, and Central Asian nations have expressed keen interest in strengthening ties with the bloc.

During the summit, Uzbek President Shavkat mirziyoyev announced an agreement to establish a European Investment Bank (EIB) office in Uzbekistan and the ratification of a project to facilitate electricity supply from Central Asia to Europe. These developments signify a growing commitment to energy security and infrastructure development in the region.

Tajik President Emomali Rahmon conveyed his expectations for trade preferences and increased investment from the EU. Simultaneously occurring, Kazakhstan’s Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasized his nation’s readiness to increase oil exports to the EU, accounting for 13% of the bloc’s oil imports. Kazakhstan also announced a collaborative effort with Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan to construct a green energy transmission line across the Caspian Sea. The line aims to improve access to European markets, highlighting the region’s potential as a renewable energy hub.

The summit also underscored the importance of rare earth materials, a critical area of cooperation between the EU and Central Asia. as the U.S., Russia, and China compete for these valuable resources, the EU views Central Asia as a potential supplier.

Tokayev noted that Kazakhstan produces 19 of the 34 raw materials deemed essential by the EU. Mirziyoyev pledged to enhance collaboration between Uzbekistan and the EU in the development of critical mineral resources. This focus on resource security is particularly relevant for U.S. policymakers, who are seeking to diversify supply chains and reduce dependence on geopolitical rivals.

despite these positive signals, the summit concluded without any major breakthroughs or concrete announcements. The leaders’ joint statement consisted largely of restating existing priorities and shared interests,falling short of delivering tangible results. The document, spanning 20 points, emphasized upgrading relations to a “strategic partnership” but lacked specific details on actionable steps, reaffirming the Joint Roadmap for Deepening Ties adopted in 2023.

There was a noticeable lack of strong enthusiasm among Central Asian leaders. They are increasingly accustomed to being courted by various Asian governments and individual European nations. The financial commitments proposed by the EU also appeared less extraordinary compared to the larger and more rapidly deployed offers from china and the Gulf Cooperation Council. This raises concerns about the EU’s ability to compete effectively in the region’s evolving geopolitical landscape.

The EU’s effectiveness in Central Asia is also closely tied to its engagement in the South Caucasus, wich serves as a crucial geographical bridge. Brussels’ strained relations with Georgia and Azerbaijan present significant challenges. Although geopolitical imperatives may push these nations to reconcile their differences, a resolution remains distant.This geopolitical complexity could undermine the EU’s efforts to establish a stable and reliable trade corridor through the region.

The summit primarily emphasized political intent and reaffirmed broader objectives but struggled to translate these ambitions into concrete, achievable actions. This disconnect raises questions about the EU’s capacity to act decisively on the global stage.

Ultimately, the central question is whether the EU can evolve into an effective geopolitical player. The EU’s Geopolitical Commission, established in 2019 to address great power competition, has so far yielded limited results. The bloc needs to demonstrate greater agility and speed in its foreign policy initiatives to effectively counter the influence of other global powers in strategically important regions like Central Asia.

In an era defined by intense great power competition, the EU must leverage its strengths as a provider of quality investment, trade, and energy partnerships to succeed in Central Asia. The inaugural summit highlighted the need for greater effort and strategic focus.

Comparing Investment Pledges: EU vs. China

Note: Investment figures are approximate and reflect publicly announced pledges.

Geopolitical Implications for the U.S.

• Countering China’s Influence: The U.S. shares an interest with the EU in preventing China from dominating Central Asia through its Belt and Road Initiative.
• Diversifying Supply Chains: Access to Central Asia’s rare earth minerals is crucial for reducing U.S.dependence on China and other geopolitical rivals.
• Regional Stability: A stable and prosperous Central Asia is vital for preventing the spread of extremism and maintaining regional security.
• Energy Security: Supporting Central Asia’s energy infrastructure can help diversify global energy supplies and reduce reliance on Russia.