Myanmar’s deadliest natural disaster in years has strengthened the position of ruling general, Min aung Hlaing, by opening diplomatic channels that had been largely closed since the 2021 coup. The coup ousted an elected government, triggering a brutal civil war and widespread international condemnation.

Just before last week’s earthquake, measuring a magnitude of 7.7,the junta chief was preparing for a rare foreign visit to a regional summit in thailand.This visit, strategically timed after the outpouring of global sympathy, marks a potential turning point in ending his isolation by most world leaders, who have distanced themselves due to the ongoing conflict that has displaced 3.5 million peopel and crippled the nation’s economy.

Angshuman Choudhury, an analyst based in Singapore, observes, “The junta knows that regional powers jostling for influence in Myanmar, like India, China, and Russia would wont to use this opportunity to strengthen thier own toehold in the country.” He further adds, “By publicly and directly engaging with regional capitals, it can demonstrate its supposed indispensability as Myanmar’s primary public authority.” This highlights the complex geopolitical dynamics at play, with various nations seeking to leverage the crisis to their advantage.

A Flurry of Diplomatic Activity

In the days following the earthquake, Min Aung Hlaing engaged in conversations with key global leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. These discussions have spurred a wave of international aid pouring into the country.

Just weeks after the junta reaffirmed its plans for a general election in December, the earthquake has provided a new avenue for its leader to engage with regional powers. This comes at a critical time,as the junta had been steadily losing ground in the conflict,facing battlefield defeats and mounting pressure on Min Aung Hlaing himself.

While key allies like China have supported the junta, even Beijing had not fully embraced the embattled general. He did not secure a meeting with President Xi during his visit to China in November. however, his state visit to Moscow last month saw him meet with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, a steadfast supporter since the coup.

“I would think he’s getting like everything he ever dreamt of and more right now,”

— A diplomatic source in Yangon

According to a diplomatic source in Yangon, the commercial capital, “I would think he’s getting like everything he ever dreamt of and more right now,” referring to the Moscow visit, the telephone call with Mr. Modi, and a meeting of the ASEAN grouping. “He’s back in the circle. He has a seat at the table.” This sentiment underscores the significance of these recent engagements for the junta leader.

Concerns and Counterarguments

Though, concerns remain about the junta exploiting the crisis to consolidate its power and potentially obstruct aid to civilians and opposition groups. Millions of dollars in aid, relief supplies, and hundreds of rescue workers from countries like China, India, Russia, and Southeast Asia have arrived in myanmar. Despite calls for a ceasefire, the junta continues its military operations.

Choudhury suggests that “The quake will complicate the resistance’s fight and its ability to retain support from the local population.” This highlights the potential for the junta to use the disaster to weaken the opposition and solidify its control.

Addressing potential counterarguments, some analysts believe that the junta’s reliance on a few key allies might be a viable strategy. Sihasak Phuangketkeow,a former Thai vice minister for foreign affairs who visited Myanmar last month,notes,”They see the world order as shifting,and that there is a new pole with china,Russia and india.” He adds, “They think Myanmar might potentially be able to thrive without other engagement.”

The BIMSTEC summit and Diplomatic Validation

During the BIMSTEC summit, Min Aung hlaing gained further opportunities for diplomatic engagement, notably with India and Thailand. BIMSTEC, the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation, includes Thailand, Myanmar, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bhutan.

Sihasak further explains,”What I got from my recent trip was that Min Aung Hlaing doesn’t want to be just under China only,” emphasizing the junta leader’s desire for a more balanced geopolitical position. “It is indeed about how we can assert our own position. We should not let this opportunity to engage Myanmar slip by.”

In Bangkok, the junta chief was slated to meet with Prime Minister Modi, who has been proactive in providing aid and personnel to Myanmar following the earthquake. “Modi, particularly, has already indicated that he is willing to directly engage,” notes Choudhury, referring to the leaders’ call.

Thailand’s tightrope Walk

Some analysts suggest that Thailand is navigating a delicate situation by lending legitimacy to Min Aung Hlaing amidst the ongoing armed resistance. Thitinan pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, describes the situation as “a nasty, brutal, violent civil war.” He emphasizes that “Thailand has to be very careful because it has a long border with Myanmar and lots at stake.” This underscores the regional implications of the crisis and the careful balancing act required by neighboring countries.