Baltic States Excluded from London Summit: Implications and Reactions

Baltic States Voice Discontent over Exclusion From Ukraine Summit

Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have expressed their dissatisfaction after not being invited to a summit regarding Ukraine. The exclusion has raised concerns about the depiction of countries on the front lines of potential Russian aggression.

Baltic Concerns and Security Implications

Marko Mihkelson, chairman of the Estonian Parliament’s Foreign Committee, emphasized the urgency of Baltic participation, stating it is “inevitable” that the countries should have been invited to the meeting because the Baltic states “risk being next in turn”.

Mihkelson underscored the potential threat in Estonian media, “If we fail to stop Russia in Ukraine, the Baltic countries may risk being next in line, it is indeed absolutely inevitable that we should be physically present.”

Alternative Meeting with UK Prime Minister

Despite the exclusion, Estonia, latvia, and lithuania will participate in a telephone meeting with Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Sunday, March 2, 2025. According to Lithuania’s President Gitana’s Nausėda’s office,this arrangement has been confirmed.

While the telephone call is welcomed, reservations remain. A Lithuanian advisor stated, “As no decisions are made after such meetings, all ways are to discuss details acceptable. All the more because the leaders of the baltic countries, those closest to the Russian limit, will be the first to receive that information from Mr Starmer.”

Experts Weigh In

Hugo von Essen,an analyst at the Center for Eastern European Studies at the Foreign policy Institute,noted the unfortunate optics of excluding the Baltic states,saying,”At the same time,they have,in my opinion,had the best and most responsible policy about Ukraine and provided the greatest support relative to its size. So it’s unfortunate.”

Ludvig Broomé, a researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute’s European program, suggested the exclusion was likely due to limiting participant numbers and prioritizing larger countries. however, Broomé also acknowledged the diplomatic sensitivity, telling TV4 News, “Given the history of the Baltic countries, high defense appropriations and geographically vulnerable position, it is diplomatically sensitive and perhaps a little unnecessary. The Baltic States fear for their own sovereignty and safety, not being able to sit at the table cause agony.”

Summit Details and Key Participants

The Ukraine war summit is expected to include approximately 20 EU leaders,along with leaders from Turkey and Canada. Key figures such as NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and Council Chair António Costa are also on the guest list.

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson is also slated to attend, joining other Nordic leaders at the summit.

Russian Viewpoint

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has criticized the European summit,with Reuters reporting his comments. Lavrov stated, “The discussion in Europe about peacekeeping forces in Ukraine is arrogant.”

Lavrov also praised former U.S. President Donald Trump, with whom Russia has engaged in discussions regarding a peace plan, calling him “pragmatic” and saying he here “common sense”.

Broader Implications for European Security

A European diplomatic source shared concerns with British Sky News, stating, “Russia and our citizens will clearly see this as that we have been sold by the United States, but also by Britain and France.” The source highlights the perceived risks of sidelining key allies.

Ludvig Broomé believes the Kremlin is paying attention to the absence of the baltic countries. He stated: “The Balts obviously want to be present at the meeting, but the lack of the invitation should not be interpreted as the UK or other participants abandoning the interests of the Baltic. All states present agree that Russia must not be allowed to move boundaries by force, and that it is more crucial then ever with European solidarity,”

Planning for a Future Without U.S. Security Guarantees

A central issue at the summit is anticipated to be contingency planning for a scenario where the U.S. reduces its security commitments in Europe. As Broomé noted: “Exactly how far -reaching American withdrawal from Europe is still unclear.Some assessors believe that the US statements are intended to create shock rather than signaling a total withdrawal.”

The focus is on identifying immediate and impactful support strategies for Ukraine, regardless of the level of U.S. assistance.

The exclusion of the Baltic states from the Ukraine summit highlights a delicate balance between strategic considerations and the need to reassure vulnerable allies.As Europe navigates an evolving security landscape, fostering unity and addressing the concerns of frontline nations remains paramount. Understanding the nuances of these geopolitical dynamics is crucial for informed decision-making. Stay informed on the latest developments to better grasp the implications for regional stability and global security.